Blue Grass Stakes
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In what may have been thoroughbred racing's last "Golden Era" - which arguably ended in the early 1990s - it was often very easy to narrow down the Kentucky Derby contenders to the winners of the traditional "final" Kentucky Derby prep races - Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, or Santa Anita Derby. Those races carried the highest prestige and in the grand tradition of the Sport of Kings, that was the best way to know how good your horse whether he was good enough to get to the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Things have changed, and for those who look forward to betting on the Run for the Roses there is value to be had in looking at the losers of these and other final prep races.
Since the passing of that Golden Age the nature and economics of racing have changed so dramatically that finding a Derby winner has become much harder. Higher purses in Arkansas, Illinois, and even New Mexico have created new routes to Churchill Downs. The new breed of owner and trainer want to win early and at all costs, want to make as much money as quickly as possible, and want to increase the value of their stallion prospects by winning any graded stakes they can as soon as possible. Because of this many fine 2-year olds get raced too soon, get injured or burn out, and fall by the wayside the following spring. Where you could once count on the winner of the Kentucky Derby to prove his mettle in the handicap ranks later on. The Derby winner has become the "now" horse, one who gets hot and peaks on Derby Day. All too often they disappear from the track soon after May, the lure of huge offers from the world's largest breeding operations just too lucrative to resist. But this is the reality we have to deal with now.
The road to the 2005 Kentucky Derby has been fraught with all kinds of twists and turns, one of the most confusing in recent memory. As of this writing, before the March 19 prep races, a true standout has not yet emerged from the pack, and while last week's races of March 12 may have made the picture a little clearer, the injury that knocked undefeated Future Book favorite DECLAN'S MOON off the Derby Trail makes role of Derby favorite is still up for grabs. Trainers of some of the top contenders have so much as said they will go into Kentucky with only two prep races, something unheard of in years past.
We will soon be coming up on final prep races which should help sort out the contenders from the pretenders. When analyzing the prep races it is very important to not only take note of the winners, but those finishing behind the winner if you expect to find value come May 7. Since 1995, Derby Winners Funny Cide ($73.60); Monarchos ($23.00); Real Quiet ($18.80); and Thunder Gulch ($51.00) were all significant overlays who LOST their final prep before winning the Derby. Need more? How about Silver Charm ($10.00); Sea Hero ($27.80); Lil E. Tee ($36.60) Unbridled ($23.60); and Alysheba ($18.80)!
While none of the fields for these final prep races has been set, here's a rundown of top contenders who MIGHT be running in those races (based on news reports and interviews with the connections) and what to look for in the running of the race for possible overlays on Derby Day. At the end of this article is a "TrackMaster Top Ten" list of our top Derby Contenders as of March 18.
Despite the prestige that winning the Blue Grass Stakes carries, no winner of the race has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991. There may not be any particular reason for this, but perhaps horsemen are more inclined to chase the bigger purses in the Florida, Arkansas, and Santa Anita Derbies instead of adding their legacy to the likes of Round Table, Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Alydar, and Spectacular Bid, to name of few of racing's greats who completed the Blue Grass/Derby double.
For many years there has been a perceived bias against closers running in the 3 path and out. The BG winner generally goes wire to wire, or at the least keeps to the inside and makes the late move on the rail or near it. Any horse who closes strongly and wide (Unbridled) deserves extra credit and should be a strong contender in May. Discount the winner if they ride the Golden Rail throughout.